Egg Prices Are Expected to Fall Sharply in 2026—But Relief May Vary by Market

After several years of record-breaking increases, egg prices are finally moving in a more favorable direction for American households, restaurants, bakeries, caterers, and other food-related businesses.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture now predicts that average retail egg prices will decline approximately 30.7 percent in 2026, following increases of 8.5 percent in 2024 and 21.9 percent in 2025. By June 2026, retail egg prices nationwide were already 27.9 percent lower than one year earlier. USDA Economic Research Service

What Is Bringing Prices Down?

The earlier price surge was driven primarily by highly pathogenic avian influenza, commonly known as bird flu. When the virus was detected at commercial farms, entire flocks frequently had to be removed, sharply reducing the number of egg-laying hens and disrupting the national supply.

Conditions have improved considerably in 2026.

USDA reports that:

• Fewer new bird-flu cases were detected during the first quarter of 2026 than during the same period in 2025.

• Producers have been rebuilding their laying flocks.

• The supply of replacement hens has been sufficient to cover normal flock turnover and unexpected losses.

• National egg production is expected to increase over 2025 levels.

Greater production and improved availability have pushed wholesale and farm-level prices dramatically lower. USDA currently forecasts an average 83.4 percent decline in farm-level egg prices during 2026. Retail prices generally fall more slowly because they also include packaging, transportation, labor, distribution, and store operating costs.

California Consumers May See a Different Price

The national forecast is encouraging, but California shoppers should not assume that every carton will become 30 percent cheaper—or that prices will fall equally at every store.

California’s cage-free production requirements, transportation costs, regional supply conditions, product type, and retailer pricing decisions can keep local prices above national averages. Organic, free-range, pasture-raised, and specialty eggs will also continue to command higher prices.

Nevertheless, California’s wholesale market has shown substantial improvement. In early June, USDA reported a benchmark price of approximately 84 cents per dozen for large California-compliant shell eggs, while featured cage-free eggs averaged considerably more. USDA Egg Markets Overview

What This Means for Local Businesses

Lower egg prices could provide meaningful relief to Compton restaurants, bakeries, cafés, caterers, food manufacturers, home-based food entrepreneurs, and neighborhood markets. Eggs are used not only as a breakfast item but also in baked goods, sauces, batters, prepared meals, desserts, and numerous commercial food products.

Business owners should still remain cautious when budgeting. Bird flu has not disappeared, and USDA notes that outbreaks often increase during the spring and fall migrations of wild birds. A significant new outbreak could once again affect production and cause wholesale prices to rise quickly. USDA APHIS

Practical steps for local food businesses include:

• Comparing prices among multiple suppliers.

• Reviewing contracts that were negotiated during the price surge.

• Monitoring the difference between wholesale savings and distributor pricing.

• Avoiding large inventories unless storage and expected usage justify the purchase.

• Updating menu costs before making permanent price changes.

• Continuing to maintain alternative recipes or suppliers in case the market shifts again.

A Welcome Change—But Not the End of Food Inflation

Falling egg prices are welcome news, particularly for families and small businesses that absorbed extraordinary increases during the bird-flu crisis. However, the broader cost of food continues to rise. USDA expects overall food prices to increase approximately 3.1 percent in 2026, including a projected 2.7 percent increase for food purchased for home consumption.

In other words, eggs may become substantially more affordable even as prices for beef, vegetables, beverages, sweets, and other foods continue climbing.

For Compton households and businesses, the outlook is improving—but careful shopping, comparison purchasing, and close attention to market conditions remain important.

This article is based on the latest USDA outlook available as of August 2026. Agricultural forecasts may change as production, disease conditions, weather, and consumer demand evolve.